Every year there are guys I covet, and guys that I wouldn't draft if a gun was pointed at my head. Here is a list of five guys, four of which falls into the latter category. The first guy I list is included because the hype is so overwhelming, he is bound to disappoint to a degree. So here goes my 5 biggest busts since Dolly Parton...
1. Matt Forte - Don't get me wrong. He's a decent back. Solid. But to hear many people out there, this guy can walk on water. I've seen him go #1 in some mock drafts... really, most of the time no later than 4. I don't get it. He is not the second coming of Emmitt Smith, or Marshall Faulk, or for one brief shining moment, Larry Johnson. I don't think this palooka will ever rush for more than 20 TDs. In fact, last year he rushed for... *gasp* 8 whole TDs. Yes he caught 4 more TD passes to up it to a huge, phenomenal, unheard of 12 TDs!!! I'm taking him #1 Overall!!!!!!...ummm... not really. Can Cutler make THAT much of a difference? No. There are many articles, rather convincing ones, that show how Cutler is a solid, not elite QB. His strength is the deep ball, but Chi-town has no receivers. Even if he was to connect on some deep throws, they would be to WRs, not the guy out of the backfield. One other thing. If you are a defensive coordinator, who do you really have to stop first and foremost on the Chicago offense. Cutler? Hardly. Unless their receivers get a whole lot better REAL quick. No, defenses have to game plan for Forte. He wont be a surprise to anybody this year. He wont be an unknown in the pros. Coordinators will have a whole season of tape to watch. No surprises this year. Also, has anyone heard of the sophomore jinx? This guy is solid, but people will draft him expecting him to carry their team on his back. He wont be able to do it.
2. Reggie Bush - Somebody who thinks you have to draft two running backs in the first two rounds or face eternal damnation will snap Bush up WAY to early. Then, faster than you can say Pierre Thomas, they will be disappointed. I will in no way, shape or form draft him. He'll get dinged up again. His speed has already been impacted by the injuries he has already sustained. He wont get any faster, or any better. He has peaked, and that peak is called the Bunny Slope. Let someone else grab him, you've got better things to do.
3. Thomas Jones - Brett Favre's reputation will not be around to take the heat off of him this year. That is also assuming he is not riding the pine, watching Greene and Washington take most of the carries. Now that I think about it, I just might draft Bush (*shudder*) before this bum. Don't "jones" for this guy. Get someone with a more stable hold on the starting job, and someone who doesn't have not one but two people to worry about.
4. Larry Johnson - I do believe that the Chiefs will be much more pass oriented than they were under the "Herminator." Larry is also wearing out his welcome in KC, and even though he has been fantasy gold in the past, his time is done. To paraphrase my favorite fictitious boxing trainer..."He may have the heart, but he aint got the tools no more." My advise is to let someone else draft Johnson, then use a late (late) round pick on Jamaal Charles.
5. Joseph Addai - Well, he was fun while he lasted. Donald Brown was not drafted to sit around with his thumb up his helmet. Brown will get carries. Carries that once belonged to Addai. Carries he wont get back. If I'm drafting anyone from the Colts, their names will rhyme with Stanning, Konzalez, or Payne.
This is your 3rd String Kicker, see ya next time.
Wednesday, July 1, 2009
Tuesday, June 30, 2009
My 10 Sleepers for 2009
After reading vice2020's sleeper/bust lists...I'm totally inspired to create my own. So without further ado... here is my
Sleepers for 2009!
QB Kyle Orton (Den) - I know, I know...probably just seeing this name has caused you to stop reading my blog, but hang with me here. He accounted for 21 TDs in the Bear's offense last year. Seriously...he isn't a stud QB, but give credit where credit is due...he had no receivers and still managed to put score 21 TDs...which puts him at the same level as Troy Aikman back in the day. Granted, no one drafted Aikman as a starter, either...but we are talking sleepers. Orton will have better all-around weapons at Denver (caveat- this sleeper pick is assuming Marshall stays put, if not-scratch this name) which means he should score more TDs...which means you wont have to pay a heavy price for a decent backup/borderline starter. Grab him late, and you should see a return on your investment.
WR Chad Ochocinco (Cin) - You heard it from me right here, right now...the receiver formerly known as Johnson is top ten, perhaps even top 5 WR material! History shows that the Bengals usually get rid of malcontents a year after they make an example of them (see Pickens, Carl) If "The Ocho" behaves himself, he very well could be sent packing after the season. I say this because if he keeps his nose clean and has a good year, his stock will be back up. All he has ever said is that he wants one more big contract. If he screws up again, that wont happen. He'll be motivated, and his contract will expire after 2010, which means if the Bengals want anything at all for him, they'll have to trade him after the season. Long story short, this could end up being a "contract year" for Chad. Expect good things at a reasonable price.
QB Trent Edwards (Buf) - This is somewhat of a stretch, but I have a feeling that Owens (who is in a contract year) will help Trent's numbers by not only providing a good target, but also by keeping double teams off of Lee Evans. Also, I think the Bills running game will stink. I'm not sold on Fred Jackson, and Marshawn Lynch.... well... is Marshawn Lynch. I see more suspensions in his future.
RB Shonn Greene (NYJ) - Thomas Jones can complain all he wants to...his days of earning a big contract are over... and the Jets seem tired of his garbage. Enter Shonn Greene (isn't he half of the Jets draft? ) who can be gotten relatively cheaply, and should be carrying the rock before the season ends (if not before the season BEGINS). I would draft Greene over Jones in a heartbeat.
WR Anthony Gonzalez (Ind) - If there ever was a year for AG to come out and take the bull by the horns...it is this year. Reggie Wayne didn't really inspire me last year, and Harrison has been put out to pasture. If Gonzalez can't step it up in this situation, I doubt he ever will. I'm betting he makes the most of the opportunity.
WR Nate Washington (Ten) - I believe the vet will have more of an impact that Britt, at least for this year. Granted, no WR on the Titans will get a whole lot of scores with that run first philosophy, and Lendale/Johnson around...but if you are scrounging in the late rounds for a starting WR for your roster, consider Washington.
WR Earl Bennett (Chi) - Okay, whoever hadn't stopped reading my blog before this entry just left. Bennett has history with Cutler, and Cutler has to make good after his tantrum in the offseason. Mix in the fact that Kyle Orton put up 21 total TDs in this offense, Cutler should be able to do as well, if not better, and don't tell me about Hester... I'm rolling some late round dice on Bennett.
WR Miles Austin (Dal) - While double teams take away whats left of Roy William's dignity...Austin should be able to take advantage. Romo is a modern day Danny White, good numbers, but chokes when the chips are down. There will be plenty of TDs to go around, and Austin can be had for a fraction of the cost of one Roy Williams.
RB Jamaal Charles (KC) - Not sure why Larry Johnson is still playing...he is an injury prone diva who is not happy about being in Kansas City. His best days are behind him. KC should see the writing on the wall and give the kid a chance. Stash him at the end of your bench and wait for the requisite Johnson injury and/or implosion.
RB Derrick Ward (TB) - Granted, Graham could make this all moot, but the Bucs didn't sign him for nothing (if Denver had signed him, though....different story) I think Ward will be given every chance to take the starting job. No QB = rely on running game. Welcome to the team, Mr. Ward...
Sleepers for 2009!
QB Kyle Orton (Den) - I know, I know...probably just seeing this name has caused you to stop reading my blog, but hang with me here. He accounted for 21 TDs in the Bear's offense last year. Seriously...he isn't a stud QB, but give credit where credit is due...he had no receivers and still managed to put score 21 TDs...which puts him at the same level as Troy Aikman back in the day. Granted, no one drafted Aikman as a starter, either...but we are talking sleepers. Orton will have better all-around weapons at Denver (caveat- this sleeper pick is assuming Marshall stays put, if not-scratch this name) which means he should score more TDs...which means you wont have to pay a heavy price for a decent backup/borderline starter. Grab him late, and you should see a return on your investment.
WR Chad Ochocinco (Cin) - You heard it from me right here, right now...the receiver formerly known as Johnson is top ten, perhaps even top 5 WR material! History shows that the Bengals usually get rid of malcontents a year after they make an example of them (see Pickens, Carl) If "The Ocho" behaves himself, he very well could be sent packing after the season. I say this because if he keeps his nose clean and has a good year, his stock will be back up. All he has ever said is that he wants one more big contract. If he screws up again, that wont happen. He'll be motivated, and his contract will expire after 2010, which means if the Bengals want anything at all for him, they'll have to trade him after the season. Long story short, this could end up being a "contract year" for Chad. Expect good things at a reasonable price.
QB Trent Edwards (Buf) - This is somewhat of a stretch, but I have a feeling that Owens (who is in a contract year) will help Trent's numbers by not only providing a good target, but also by keeping double teams off of Lee Evans. Also, I think the Bills running game will stink. I'm not sold on Fred Jackson, and Marshawn Lynch.... well... is Marshawn Lynch. I see more suspensions in his future.
RB Shonn Greene (NYJ) - Thomas Jones can complain all he wants to...his days of earning a big contract are over... and the Jets seem tired of his garbage. Enter Shonn Greene (isn't he half of the Jets draft? ) who can be gotten relatively cheaply, and should be carrying the rock before the season ends (if not before the season BEGINS). I would draft Greene over Jones in a heartbeat.
WR Anthony Gonzalez (Ind) - If there ever was a year for AG to come out and take the bull by the horns...it is this year. Reggie Wayne didn't really inspire me last year, and Harrison has been put out to pasture. If Gonzalez can't step it up in this situation, I doubt he ever will. I'm betting he makes the most of the opportunity.
WR Nate Washington (Ten) - I believe the vet will have more of an impact that Britt, at least for this year. Granted, no WR on the Titans will get a whole lot of scores with that run first philosophy, and Lendale/Johnson around...but if you are scrounging in the late rounds for a starting WR for your roster, consider Washington.
WR Earl Bennett (Chi) - Okay, whoever hadn't stopped reading my blog before this entry just left. Bennett has history with Cutler, and Cutler has to make good after his tantrum in the offseason. Mix in the fact that Kyle Orton put up 21 total TDs in this offense, Cutler should be able to do as well, if not better, and don't tell me about Hester... I'm rolling some late round dice on Bennett.
WR Miles Austin (Dal) - While double teams take away whats left of Roy William's dignity...Austin should be able to take advantage. Romo is a modern day Danny White, good numbers, but chokes when the chips are down. There will be plenty of TDs to go around, and Austin can be had for a fraction of the cost of one Roy Williams.
RB Jamaal Charles (KC) - Not sure why Larry Johnson is still playing...he is an injury prone diva who is not happy about being in Kansas City. His best days are behind him. KC should see the writing on the wall and give the kid a chance. Stash him at the end of your bench and wait for the requisite Johnson injury and/or implosion.
RB Derrick Ward (TB) - Granted, Graham could make this all moot, but the Bucs didn't sign him for nothing (if Denver had signed him, though....different story) I think Ward will be given every chance to take the starting job. No QB = rely on running game. Welcome to the team, Mr. Ward...
Friday, June 19, 2009
An idea for you Commissioners...
As Co-Commissioner of the IFFL (Icon Fantasy Football League) with Vice2020, we have had an enormous amount of fun for over 16 years (I've lost track of how many years, to be honest). One of the things that has helped make it so fun is the flexibility we give ourselves and fellow owners of the league. Starting lineups can be set up one of three ways:
Pro-Set
1 TMQB
2 RB
3 WR (any combo of wr)
1 kicker
1 defense
Wishbone
1 TMQB
3 RB
2 WR
1 kicker
1 defense
Run and Shoot
1 TMQB
1 RB
3 WR
1 kicker
1 defense
Any team can start any type of formation in any given week. This helps cover bye weeks, i.e... if an owner has multiple RBs off, but most WRs active, then Run and Shoot is in order. This also empowers the owner for the draft. They can draft "best available player", and then use whatever formation plays to their strengths once they totally evaluate their draft. I see this as a good option to using flex positions. In this format, you don't have to start two RBs if you don't want to do so. If you messed up drafting a certain position, all is not lost. Tight Ends are also mixed in with WRs. (Can't forget the Tight Ends). However, you don't have to start a tight end if you don't want to start one. Surprisingly, even in our league, tight ends do get drafted every year, but at least you don't see anyone having to draft a Robert Royal to fill a roster spot.
I know this isn't for everyone, but if interested...try it out. You just might like it. If you feel like sharing an interesting idea from your league, please let me know.
Good luck and good drafting from your 3rd String Kicker!
Pro-Set
1 TMQB
2 RB
3 WR (any combo of wr)
1 kicker
1 defense
Wishbone
1 TMQB
3 RB
2 WR
1 kicker
1 defense
Run and Shoot
1 TMQB
1 RB
3 WR
1 kicker
1 defense
Any team can start any type of formation in any given week. This helps cover bye weeks, i.e... if an owner has multiple RBs off, but most WRs active, then Run and Shoot is in order. This also empowers the owner for the draft. They can draft "best available player", and then use whatever formation plays to their strengths once they totally evaluate their draft. I see this as a good option to using flex positions. In this format, you don't have to start two RBs if you don't want to do so. If you messed up drafting a certain position, all is not lost. Tight Ends are also mixed in with WRs. (Can't forget the Tight Ends). However, you don't have to start a tight end if you don't want to start one. Surprisingly, even in our league, tight ends do get drafted every year, but at least you don't see anyone having to draft a Robert Royal to fill a roster spot.
I know this isn't for everyone, but if interested...try it out. You just might like it. If you feel like sharing an interesting idea from your league, please let me know.
Good luck and good drafting from your 3rd String Kicker!
Wednesday, June 17, 2009
Draft who you want to draft...
Good old summertime. Fantasy football magazines start hitting the stands. Draft boards become available for purchase. Mock drafts are held to prepare for the real thing. To me, its every bit as welcome and exciting as the holidays. Draft day is Christmastime, and I end up hoping for good players "under my tree."
Magazines and webites alike will tell you that there is an unwritten law. You MUST take a RB in the first round...or at least two running backs in the first three rounds. I'm here to say that these "experts" can go fly a kite. Draft who you want! If you want to draft receivers in 3 of the first 4 rounds...go for it. I've seen people win championships that way. In fact last year, I drafted a QB first (Brees), then WRs in the next 3 rounds...and I made it to my championship game! I still ended up with decent RBs...LenDale White (thanks for those 15 TDs, my late round friend), Steve Slaton (9 TDs), Le'Ron McClain (another 10 TDs). If any expert had of seen my draft before the season, they would have chuckled as I passed over "surefire" first round picks (read: RB... no one else but running backs get to be "surefired" by experts.) to take a QB and then a slew of receivers.
My question is...why do these guys trumpet mediocre RB bums, when great QBs and WRs are there to be taken. In the past, such tomato cans as Willis McGahee and Laurence Maroney were hailed as "surefire" first round picks...uhhh... not for me thank you very much. Has anyone ever taken a close look as "expert" mock drafts? There are always some guys who take two RBs when there are CLEARLY WRs and QBs out there that will score much more just ripe for the taking.
Don't give in to peer pressure. Take whatever position you feel like taking. Draft day is the single most fun day in the Fantasy Football Calendar (except for the day you win the championship). You have your own kind of fun. Draft your way. Teams don't usually look the same by the end of the year anyway, so have some fun. Do the unconventional. And win.
Magazines and webites alike will tell you that there is an unwritten law. You MUST take a RB in the first round...or at least two running backs in the first three rounds. I'm here to say that these "experts" can go fly a kite. Draft who you want! If you want to draft receivers in 3 of the first 4 rounds...go for it. I've seen people win championships that way. In fact last year, I drafted a QB first (Brees), then WRs in the next 3 rounds...and I made it to my championship game! I still ended up with decent RBs...LenDale White (thanks for those 15 TDs, my late round friend), Steve Slaton (9 TDs), Le'Ron McClain (another 10 TDs). If any expert had of seen my draft before the season, they would have chuckled as I passed over "surefire" first round picks (read: RB... no one else but running backs get to be "surefired" by experts.) to take a QB and then a slew of receivers.
My question is...why do these guys trumpet mediocre RB bums, when great QBs and WRs are there to be taken. In the past, such tomato cans as Willis McGahee and Laurence Maroney were hailed as "surefire" first round picks...uhhh... not for me thank you very much. Has anyone ever taken a close look as "expert" mock drafts? There are always some guys who take two RBs when there are CLEARLY WRs and QBs out there that will score much more just ripe for the taking.
Don't give in to peer pressure. Take whatever position you feel like taking. Draft day is the single most fun day in the Fantasy Football Calendar (except for the day you win the championship). You have your own kind of fun. Draft your way. Teams don't usually look the same by the end of the year anyway, so have some fun. Do the unconventional. And win.
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